Fukuoka Prefecture has released new damage estimates for a potential major earthquake involving the offshore Oronoshima fault zone and the southeastern section of the Kego fault zone, based on recent surveys conducted following the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake. The scenario assumes a magnitude 8.1 earthquake centered off the prefecture’s coast and marks the first time Fukuoka has published projections for offshore active faults.
Under the worst-case scenario, seismic intensity 7 could be recorded in nine cities and three towns, including Fukuoka City, Kurume, and Kasuga, while intensity 6-upper and 6-lower shaking is forecast across much of northern Kyushu. The assessment estimates up to 45,000 buildings could be destroyed by collapse or fire, 369,000 people could be forced to evacuate, and fatalities could reach 2,400. When disaster-related deaths are included, the projected toll rises to 3,300, exceeding the prefecture’s previous worst-case estimate by 600.
Officials said the findings will be incorporated into regional disaster prevention plans, emergency stockpile policies, evacuation strategies, and large-scale disaster response exercises. The prefecture is also urging residents to secure furniture, confirm evacuation routes, and maintain at least three days’ worth of food and drinking water at home. Fukuoka City has already begun expanding emergency supplies, with plans to increase stockpiled food to 585,000 meals this fiscal year. Source: KBC News / Fukuoka Prefecture
Photo: Fukuoka Now
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