The latest sakura bloom forecast released by the Japan Weather Association (Nihon Kishou) on February 20, 2025, predicts that cherry blossoms (Somei Yoshino variety) in Kyushu will bloom later than usual this year. The delay is due to a combination of a slower dormancy break caused by warm autumn temperatures and colder-than-average conditions in February.
In Fukuoka, cherry blossoms are expected to begin blooming around March 27, with full bloom anticipated by April 4. This is about five days later than the historical average for bloom and four days later for full bloom. In Nagasaki, the forecast is nearly identical, with blossoms expected to appear around March 27 and reach full bloom by April 4, also about four days behind the usual schedule. In Kumamoto, cherry blossoms should start opening on March 26, with full bloom following on April 3, about four and three days later than average, respectively. In Oita, the bloom is predicted to start on March 27, with full bloom around April 5, both about four days later than usual.
Further south in Miyazaki, cherry blossoms should appear around March 24, with full bloom expected by April 2, which is a delay of about three days for bloom and two days for full bloom. In Kagoshima, the forecast predicts bloom on March 27 and full bloom on April 7. While the bloom date aligns with the historical average, the full bloom is projected to be about two days later than usual.
The primary reason for this delay is a slower dormancy break caused by warmer-than-average temperatures from October to November 2024. Sakura trees need a period of cold temperatures to awaken from dormancy, and the warmer autumn slowed this process, delaying flower bud development by about a week. Additionally, the cold February temperatures have further slowed the progression of bud growth, pushing bloom dates back across the region.
For those planning hanami (cherry blossom viewing) in Kyushu, the best time to see cherry blossoms at their peak will be early to mid-April, depending on location. Full bloom in Fukuoka, Nagasaki, and Kumamoto is expected between April 4 and 7, while Miyazaki and Kagoshima will likely see peak blossoms between April 2 and 7.
Since weather conditions can influence bloom progression, travelers should check for real-time updates on the Japan Weather Association’s “Otenki Navigator” website, which provides live forecasts and bloom meters.
This forecast will be updated in the coming weeks as conditions change, so be sure to check the latest information before finalizing your hanami plans!
Source: Japan Weather Association – Sakura Forecast
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